Speak it into Existence
"Just remember....it's not a lie, if you believe it."
- George Constanza
One of the greatest quotes from one of the greatest characters from one of the greatest shows of all time. And these days, it really does feel like the theme of how so many are living their lives. This especially rings true in the sports betting space.
Every time we step into the chaos that is Gambling Twitter, we find ourselves face to face with people that are spewing the same shit, day after day. I guess it's not the worst thing - contributors have to reinforce their brand and what they stand for. But when they're spewing nonsense and have the chance to influence others with this nonsense, well, it just wears us down faster than usual. Some of it goes unchecked, some of it gets constant pushback.
If someone continues to speak something into existence, and we continue to let it go unchecked, people start nodding along in agreement. Then they start repeating it. Then it's said so many times it becomes fact. Before we know it, information that shouldn't have been shared in the first place is now adopted by the masses and we're all worse off for it. What's really sad is that the person who first put it out into the universe often believes in their nonsensical rubbish; they've fallen into the Constanza trap. They really do not believe it to be a lie.
So, here are the things that I'm hearing/reading too often that you should never feel bad about dunking on, pushing back, or mercilessly mocking.
Please note that any example shown below is the first example that came to mind. I do not think it's necessarily an accurate representation of how "sharp" they are, rather, it was the only example I could think of/find for each category. Also, these have been ranked by how annoyed you should be when you come across it.
1. If soft books get more action from squares, they will be more likely to let sharps hang around.
Get the fuck out of here with this bullshit. This came from Krackhead during that sports betting documentary on Showtime or wherever it ran. There was a scene in which a big table of average joe bettors are celebrating a play in a game or winning a bet, and he mentions how that's great for people like him as books will allow sharp customers to win for longer periods of time, as long as there's a bunch of fish for them to make money off of.
Last I checked, FanDuel and DraftKings have the top 2 market shares in the U.S. Additionally, I did another check, and they both limit sharp bettors very quickly. To be fair, FanDuel is better relative to most, but the point remains. Don't ever let someone say this without going unchecked. You think these sportsbooks are sitting there in a meeting going "Well geez fellas, we have this report that took us 6 seconds to run, identifies everyone beating the closing line, and these are likely our long-term unprofitable customers. But you know what? We had 50,000 new sign-ups this quarter, so let's have these terrible customers stick around and keep taking our money!"
It is so damn easy for these companies to place limits on sharp accounts. Sure, they might mislabel a few and limit some accounts that would have lost a little more without the restrictions, but you don't think they're OK with that? New customers will continue signing up by the thousands, collectively lose millions of dollars, and soft books will continue to kick sharp customers without a care in the world. Do not let anyone state otherwise.
2. Touts care more about the plays they send to customers than winning money on their own plays.
Do the kids still say "you can miss me with that"? If so, you can miss me with this. I cannot take this for one more second. Although, I will say, it's a fantastic variation to the "is touting bad?" conversations we get every other day.
I'm sorry Eddie - you're awesome and I very much enjoyed our conversations at Bet Bash. You're a really good dude. I guarantee he isn't exaggerating in the above statement, but we cannot normalize this.
Touts do not get to fight for the publics' sympathy. They sell packages of picks, and when those picks lose, customers lose both their bet amount AND the money they spent on a subscription. My first question for touts remains the same: if you feel sooooooo bad about losing, why not offer the customers a full refund? Oh, you can't do that because it's part of your income? Ok, so you feel really bad about losing picks, and you care even more about the release picks than your own picks. That is so very nice of you! The tout missing out on some sleep because of losing their customers money is pretty much the same as the thousands of dollars the customers lost, so we're all square.
Here's how I imagine a conversation between a RAS subscriber and Ed Golden would go:
Customer: Hey man, this year has been really brutal. We think it's going to change?
Ed: Just brutal. We feel terrible about everything, the whole team has been working so many hours to right the ship but we just can't get it going.
Customer: Yeah, really tough.
Ed: Super tough, haven't been able to sleep, stressed out all the time, really feel bad for our customers.
Customer: Yeah.
Ed: I mean, we haven't had a losing season since 2010. We're evaluating all options and are trying to make it right with everyone. We really want to make this work.
Customer: Any chance I can get my subscription money back?
Ed: No.
Customer: ...................(awkward silence)
Ed: ....................(awkward silence)
Customer: Sooooo.....Cal Poly, super weird right?
Ed: (hangs up)
I'm sorry, we don't and shouldn't feel bad for anyone selling picks. I think it's fair to humanize the issue somewhat - I do not want someone as kind as Eddie to feel bad. I do not want the RAS guys to be depressed. But that's as far as anyone should be willing to go. They can feel terrible all day long, but if they're not offering money back then all they're providing their customers with are losing picks, a loss of funds, and some kind words saying they're doing their best. Spanky puts it best...
3. Stating that a grifter in the sports betting space is the real winner because they have a big following and are making money off clueless bettors.
Again, remember what we are trying to avoid: do not normalize this shit. Is Isaks wrong? Probably not. Are those idiots from Pickit making a lot of money off unsuspecting customers? Probably. But if we normalize the statement above, we'll only get more scammers slinging their bullshit SGP's and cringeworthy videos.
Do not go out of your way to state how these people are the real winners. Do not create an opportunity for someone to comes across your Tweet and think to themselves "You know what? He's right. Maybe I should be more like Mr. Krabs and approach sports betting like he does. That's where the real money is!"
Fuck, maybe I'm wrong here. Maybe it's better to have these morons in the betting space to attract more fish money. Then my sharp plays will get a longer leash!
4. Winnings at sports betting is easy.
This comes courtesy of the Spank man.
(Lasting long will always be the challenge.....OK he's got a point here)
Winning at sports betting is not easy. It's really, really fucking hard. And it's not something I would want thrown around so easily in the space. It trivializes just how much work went into becoming successful and winning money - things that 99% of sports bettors will never do.
Now, I understand that there are more ways to win then ever before. You can originate. You can steam chase. You can arb, bonus whore, or become a scumbag with no soul taking other people's money for losing picks/advice/discord conversations. But to perpetuate this opinion that it should all be simple and easy isn't right. Imagine the intricacies of models used by incredibly successful, high level bettors. Imagine all the trial and error these people went through to perfectly refine the data into something usable and profitable. Hell, lets even throw the bottom-feeding arbers and steam chasers a bone - what they do is super difficult and time consuming as well.
Winning at sports betting is not easy. It's extremely difficult.
Trending UP
1. Posting picks that don't count.
2. Insinuating you're gonna fight another bettor, preferably at the next Bet Bash.
3. Retweeting things and your followers are confused whether you're making fun of the tweet or if it's a good tweet.
Trending DOWN
1. Survivor strategies.
2. Getting in the lab.
3. Finding out, in the year 2024, that books like DraftKings are limiting customers.
Top 5 Examples of Leaders Willing to Turn a Blind Eye Throughout History
1. Joe Paterno with Jerry Sandusky on staff.
2. Bud Selig and the rise of steroid use in MLB due to increase in home runs.
3. Jim Harbaugh letting his entire staff cheat.
4. Cornelius Fudge refusing to acknowledge Voldemort had returned.
5. Ed allowing Elihu to moderate the RAS Discord like a Nazi leader.
Ferris
@FerrisB_86
